Complex adaptive systems-based framework for modeling the health impacts of climate change.

Introduction: Climate change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching consequences, and its impact on human health is a growing concern. The intricate interplay of various factors makes it challenging to accurately predict and understand the implications of climate change on human well-being. Conventional methodologies have limitations in comprehensively addressing the complexity and nonlinearity inherent in the relationships between climate change and health outcomes. Objectives: The primary objective of this paper is to develop a robust theoretical framework that can effectively analyze and interpret the intricate web of variables influencing the human health impacts of climate change. By doing so, we aim to overcome the limitations of conventional approaches and provide a more nuanced understanding of the complex relationships involved. Furthermore, we seek to explore practical applications of this theoretical framework to enhance our ability to predict, mitigate, and adapt to the diverse health challenges posed by a changing climate. Methods: Addressing the challenges outlined in the objectives, this study introduces the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework, acknowledging its significance in capturing the nuanced dynamics of health effects linked to climate change. The research utilizes a blend of field observations, expert interviews, key informant interviews, and an extensive literature review to shape the development of the CAS framework. Results and discussion: The proposed CAS framework categorizes findings into six key sub-systems: ecological services, extreme weather, infectious diseases, food security, disaster risk management, and clinical public health. The study employs agent-based modeling, using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) tailored for each CAS sub-system. A set of identified variables is incorporated into predictive modeling to enhance the understanding of health outcomes within the CAS framework. Through a combination of theoretical development and practical application, this paper aspires to contribute valuable insights to the interdisciplinary field of climate change and health. Integrating agent-based modeling and CLDs enhances the predictive capabilities required for effective health outcome analysis in the context of climate change. Conclusion: This paper serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, researchers, and public health professionals by employing a CAS framework to understand and assess the complex network of health impacts associated with climate change. It offers insights into effective strategies for safeguarding human health amidst current and future climate challenges.

Planetary health & COVID-19: A multi-perspective investigation.

COVID-19 can be characterized as an outcome of degraded planetary health drivers in complex systems and has wide-reaching implications in social, economic and environmental realms. To understand the drivers of planetary health that have influences of emergence and spread of COVID-19 and their implications for sustainability systems thinking and a narrative literature review are deployed. In particular, sixteen planetary health drivers are identified, i.e., population growth, climate change, agricultural intensification, urbanization, land use and land cover change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, globalization, wildlife trade, wet markets, non-planetary health diet, antimicrobial resistance, air pollution, water stress, poverty and weak governance. The implications of COVID-19 for planetary health are grouped in six categories: social, economic, environmental, technological, political, and public health. The implications for planetary health are then judged to see the impacts with respect to sustainable development goals (SDGs). The paper indicates that sustainable development goals are being hampered due to the planetary health implications of COVID-19.

Integrating blue: How do we make nationally determined contributions work for both blue carbon and local coastal communities?

Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCEs) help mitigate and adapt to climate change but their integration into policy, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), remains underdeveloped. Most BCE conservation requires community engagement, hence community-scale projects must be nested within the implementation of NDCs without compromising livelihoods or social justice. Thirty-three experts, drawn from academia, project development and policy, each developed ten key questions for consideration on how to achieve this. These questions were distilled into ten themes, ranked in order of importance, giving three broad categories of people, policy & finance, and science & technology. Critical considerations for success include the need for genuine participation by communities, inclusive project governance, integration of local work into national policies and practices, sustaining livelihoods and income (for example through the voluntary carbon market and/or national Payment for Ecosystem Services and other types of financial compensation schemes) and simplification of carbon accounting and verification methodologies to lower barriers to entry.

Health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers.

The health of smallholder farmers is crucial for ensuring food and nutritional security for two billion people. However, their health is in jeopardy for several reasons including challenges from climate change impacts. Using a narrative literature review supported by field observations and informal interviews with key informants in India, Bangladesh and Malawi, this paper identifies and discusses the health impacts of climate change under four categories: (i) communicable diseases, (ii) non-communicable diseases, (iii) mental health, and (iv) occupational health, safety and other health issues. The health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers will hamper the realization of many of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and a series of recommendations are made to regional and country governments to address the increasing health impacts of accelerating climate change among smallholder farmers.

COVID-19's implications on agri-food systems and human health in Bangladesh.

The COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh has put agri-food systems and resultant human health under serious pressure and this has thus become a priority concern for the country and its development partners. To understand, describe and analyse the impacts of COVID-19 on agri-food systems, human health issues and related SDGs, this study used systematic rapid literature review, analysis of blogs and news and engagement with key informants. The analysis reveals impacts that can be addressed through a set of recommendations for a coordinated effort to minimize the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on agri-food systems and related health issues in Bangladesh.

Officially Confirmed COVID-19 and Unreported COVID-19-Like Illness Death Counts: An Assessment of Reporting Discrepancy in Bangladesh.

Reporting discrepancies between officially confirmed COVID-19 death counts and unreported COVID-19-like illness (CLI) death counts have been evident across the world, including Bangladesh. Publicly available data were used to explore the differences between confirmed COVID-19 death counts and deaths with possible COVID-19 symptoms between March 2, 2020 and August 22, 2020. Unreported CLI death counts totaled more than half of the confirmed COVID-19 death counts during the study period. However, the reporting authority did not consider CLI deaths, which might produce incomplete and unreliable COVID-19 data and respective mortality rates. All deaths with possible COVID-19 symptoms need to be included in provisional death counts to better estimate the COVID-19 mortality rate and to develop data-driven COVID-19 response strategies. An urgent initiative is needed to prepare a comprehensive guideline for reporting COVID-19 deaths.